This is just a thought exercise, and hopefully not a place for sparring between Clinton and Obama supporters. Let's ease the tensions with some idle speculation.
While Democrats have celebrated the fact that we have an African American and a woman as our final two candidates, this does not feel so much as the beginning of a trend as an isolated incident. After Hillary Clinton, it's hard to see who the next strong woman candidate will be. After Barack Obama, it's hard to see who the next strong black candidate will be. (Of course, it's really hard to imagine anyone being president, but if you pick a random senior Democratic politician out of a hat, you're pretty likely to come up with a white male.)
It was somewhat cruel that two dreams came crashing into each other this year, and that while one will finally be realized, the other will again be deferred, as it has been for the last 232 years.
Let's suppose Obama does win the nomination, and then the general election. Who will be the first woman president, and when will she be elected? Here are my predictions, from most likely to least likely:
(1) Hillary Clinton:
By far the strongest woman candidate in American history. Her strong performance has made her a party leader and given her the right to run again in either 2012 (if Obama loses) or 2016 (if he wins), depending on who wins this year. Many people will feel it's her turn. The punditry will hopefully be less idiotic than they were this year.
There are some concerns, though. While there wouldn't be many in 2012, she may be too old in 2016, may have to run against Obama's VP (if it's not her), and the terrain will be harder for Democrats after eight years in power. If she can show the same relentless energy she did this year, age may not be an issue.
(2) A Democrat not currently in statewide or federal office:
Sadly, I think this is more likely than (4), below. It's hard to think of any woman Democrat who has expressed presidential ambition, and who might be considered a serious candidate if she did. I hope this is in my lifetime, however, and especially in my mother's lifetime. I do think Clinton's success has accelerated the schedule, and made it easier for women to contemplate running for president.
(3) A Republican not currently in statewide or federal office:
Same as above. It's hard to think of any woman Republican who has expressed presidential ambition, and who might be considered a serious candidate if she did.
(4) A Democrat currently in statewide or federal office:
Clinton has partially broken the glass ceiling, making the idea of a woman president more imaginable than before. Others may be willing to give it a try. On the other hand, I can't think of many senior Democratic women who might run. Nancy Pelosi doesn't seem to be the type. Perhaps one of the current governors or senators, but none has ever indicated presidential ambition. It's doubtful that anyone else, male or female, will try to go from a lower position to the presidency as quickly as Obama.
(5) A Republican currently in office:
Again, Clinton has led the way. Women are reasonably well represented in the Republican Party (as opposed to minorities). Most likely short path is likely through McCain's vice presidency--perhaps Alaska governor Sarah Palin. But very few Republican women have mentioned presidential ambitions, so it's hard to think of who else it might be.
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